PODCAST: Hexapodia LIX: Mourning the Death of Vernor Vinge
Inflection Point
Exploring the Singularity and Its Implications
This chapter examines the concept of the singularity, emphasizing how advanced AI could lead to self-improvement and revolutionary changes across various technology sectors. The discussion questions traditional views on intelligence growth, explores models of technological progression, and highlights the philosophical implications of human desire in driving innovation. It also critiques past narratives of intelligence by authors such as Vernor Vinge and considers the ethical dimensions of life in an advanced technological society.
Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...
Key Insights:
* Vernor Vinge was one of the GOAT scifi authors—and he is also one of the most underrated…
* That a squishy social-democratic leftie like Brad DeLong can derive so much insight and pleasure from the work of a hard-right libertarian like Vernor Vinge—for whom the New Deal Order is very close to being the Big Bad, and who sees FDR as a cousin of Sauron—creates great hope that there is a deeper layer of thought to which we all can contribute. The fact that Brad DeLong and Vernor Vinge get excited in similar ways is a universal force around which we can unite, and add to them H.G. Wells and Jules Verne…
* The five things written by Vernor Vinge that Brad and Noah find most interesting are:
* “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era”,
* A Fire Upon the Deep,
* A Deepness in the Sky,
* “True Names”, &
* Rainbows End…
* We do not buy the Supermind Singularity: The world is not a game of chess in which the entity that can think 40 moves ahead will always easily trounce the entity that can only think 10 moves ahead, for time and chance happeneth to us all…
* We do not buy the Supermind Singularity: Almost all human intelligence is not in individual brains, but is in the network. We are very smart as an anthology intelligence. Whatever true A.I.s we create will be much smarter when they are tied into the network as useful and cooperative parts of it—rather than sinister gods out on their own plotting plots…
* We do not buy the Supermind Singularity: mind and technology amplification is as likely to be logistic as exponential or super-exponential…
* The ultimate innovation in a society of abundance is the ability to control human personality and desire—and now we are back to the Buddha, and to Zeno, Kleanthes, Khrisippus, and Marcus Aurelius…
* With the unfortunate asterisk that mind-hacking via messages and chemicals mean that such an ultimate innovation can be used for evil as well as good…
* Addiction effects from gambling are not, in fact, a good analogy for destructive effects of social media as a malevolent attention-hacker…
* Cyberspace is not what William Gibson and Neil Stephenson predicted.
But it rhymed. And mechanized warfare was not what H.G. Wells predicted.
But it rhymed. A lot of the stuff about AI that we see in science fiction will rhyme with whatever things are going to happen…
* The Blight of A Fire Upon the Deep is a not-unreasonable metaphor for social media as propaganda intensifier…
* We want the future of the Whole Earth Catalog and the early Wired, not of crypto grifts and ad-supported social media platforms…
* Vernor Vinge’s ideas will be remembered—if only as important pieces of a historical discussion about why the Superintelligence Singularity road was not (or was) taken—as long as the Thrones of the Valar endure…
* Noah Smith continues to spend too much time picking fights on Twitter…
* &, as always, Hexapodia…
References:
* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2022. Slouching Towards Utopia: The Economic History of the 20th Century. New York: Basic Books. <http://bit.ly/3pP3Krk>.
* Bursztyn, Leonardo, Benjamin Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, & Christopher Roth. 2023. “When Product Markets Become Collective Traps: The Case of Social Media”. Becker-Friedman Institute. October 12. <https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/research-summary/when-product-markets-become-collective-traps-the-case-of-social-media/>.
* Patel, Nilay, Alex Cranz, & David Pierce. 2024. “Rabbit, Humane, & the iPad”. Vergecast. May 3. <https://overcast.fm/+QN1ra_4w8>.
* MacIntyre, Alasdair. 1966. A Short History of Ethics: : A History of Moral Philosophy from the Homeric Age to the Twentieth Century. New York: Macmillan. <https://archive.org/details/shorthistoryofet00maci>.
* Ober, Josiah. 2008. Democracy & Knowledge: Innovation & Learning in Classical Athens. Princeton: Princeton University Press. <https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BD27WCMK>.
* Petpuls. 2024. “The World's First Dog Emotion Translator”. Accessed May 7, 2024. <https://www.petpuls.net/?lang=en>.
* Rao, Venkatesh. 2022. “Beyond Hyperanthropomorphism”. Ribbonfarm Studio. Auguts 21. <https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/beyond-hyperanthropomorphism>.
* Taintor, Joseph. 1990. The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. <https://www.amazon.com/dp/052138673X>.
* Vinge, Vernor. 1984. “True Names”. True Names & Other Dangers. New York: Bluejay Books. <https://archive.org/details/truenamesvingevernor>.
* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: Tor Books. <https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Upon-Deep-Zones-Thought/dp/0812515285>.
* Vinge, Vernor. 1993. "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era". <https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19940022856>.
* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. <https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355>.
* Vinge, Vernor. 2006. Rainbows End. New York: Tor Books. <https://www.amazon.com/Rainbows-End-Vernor-Vinge/dp/0812536363>.
* Williams, Walter Jon. 1992. Aristoi. New York: Tor Books. <https://www.lwcurrey.com/pages/books/91732/walter-jon-williams/aristoi>
* Wikipedia. “Vernor Vinge”. Accessed May 7, 2024. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge>.
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