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Currents 099: Samuel Scarpino on Preparing for the Next Pandemic

The Jim Rutt Show

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How to Stop a Virus From Spreading

For any pathogen, most of the chance that they cause an epidemic involves two numbers. One number is this infamous R0 or R0, which is the average number of secondary infections in a susceptible population from one infected individual. The second number: super spreading for sustained transmission. And so viruses like Ebola are really heavily reliant on super spreading. You turn off the super spreading and they quickly go extinct on their own. I'm actually pretty convinced that almost any pathogen that's actually going to be a threat will require between 90 and 95% containment to stop.

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