The Life Scientific: Bruce Malamud
Discovery
00:00
The Implications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Risk Management
We found a different underlining behaviour that had not been observed. So what I could compare forest fires to is the Gutenberg Richter scale for earthquakes. They also have a heavy tail distribution where you have very few big ones, more medium ones and lots and lots of small ones. And this is the same thing that we see for wildfire areas. You see the same thing for landslide areas for the very biggest ones and the medium ones and then it rolls over so you get very few small ones occurring. The point here isn't just to model these hazards like forest fires that have already happened and fit them as data into your model but to make predictions about the likelihood of them happening in the future.
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