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Episode 022: Deciding, Fast and Slow with Dr. Daniel Kahneman
The Decision Education Podcast
The Importance of a Reference Class
The outside view is now recommended formally by the American Planning Association. The kind of error that follows from taking the inside view is you are way too optimistic because you're anchored on your plan. A professor at Oxford has made it in his life's mission to collect planning errors in the public sector. It's sometimes you can predict your own optimism. You can predict where you're running a risk of getting it wrong.
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