The Importance of Observing the Counterfactual

I think the only people who could claim to say they saw it coming. I certainly said the next crisis will be from the financial side. That's where the big risks are. But that doesn't qualify me for saying that I predicted it. It started in 2007 and reached its full intensity in 2008. You'd have to get both of those things right to be able to claim that you had forced in it. I don't know anyone who did. There was a hedge fund manager in the US. Michael Barr Yeah, who did. He may be the only one who has a valid claim to saying they've forced or it.