Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations.
He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies.
Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund.
Takeaways
- Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated.
- The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process.
- The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient.
- Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf
The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:22 The macro view
03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’
05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative
08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns
11:42 Spillover effects from China
15:41 Possible recession and risks
27:14 Conclusion
