Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, lays out why a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger a global financial crisis before the end of the year.
He explains why the dollar can only fall if the U.S. allows it, how rising rates and geopolitical fragmentation are setting the stage for a major liquidity event, and why most investors are completely unprepared.
We also cover:
– The coming terrifying drawdown and how to position for it
– Why Trump’s America First policies are breaking the rules-based order
– How a yen + dollar carry trade unwind could freeze global capital flows
– Why swap lines may not be available in the next crisis
– The role of gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins in the evolving system
– Why central banks fear a return to a gold standard
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The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.
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00:00 – Why the Dollar Can’t Fall Unless the U.S. Allows It
03:10 – What Is the Dollar Milkshake Theory?
06:17 – Why Critics Misunderstand the Milkshake Framework
8:45 – Why the 2022 Crisis Didn’t Materialize
14:40 – Trump, Trade Wars & the End of Cooperation
17:05 – Is 2025 Another 2018 or 2008 Setup?
20:15 – Everyone’s Bearish: Dollar Sentiment Breakdown
23:20 – The Dollar Danger Zone & Fed's Dilemma
26:50 – Why the Dollar Falls First in a Crisis
31:00 – Yen Carry Trade Unwind & Global Liquidity Risks
35:00 – Where Does the Crisis Start?
38:00 – Can the U.S. Survive the Drawdown?
40:10 – The Future of Swap Lines Under Trump
42:10 – The Fed–Treasury Merger Scenario
47:00 – Portfolio Strategy: Hedges, Cash & Tail Risk
51:00 – Bitcoin: Asset vs Currency Debate
54:00 – Stablecoins, XRP & Digital Dollar Strategy
58:00 – Gold’s Role: Store of Value or Money?
1:02:00 – Why Non-U.S. Buyers Are Driving Gold Higher
1:04:30 – Is Gold Money Today?
