In order to make better choices in our own lives, and as a culture, we have to converge at least some of us on a systemic curve representing possible and likely futures. This is going to be especially difficult as the end of growth will quite likely imply the beginning of something other than democracy. We can imagine a point in 10 or 20 years from now where some things good for the environment are also good for the human system and vice versa.
Recorded April 10, 2023
Description
In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective - a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.
To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/uWn2svl6aBU
For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/29-reality-probability-and-perception