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Data-Driven Fed, Are You Listening?
The Fed is basing policy on lagging indicators, not what they're supposed to be doing. We have silver down 9%, DRAM prices down 33%, the Baltic dry freight index down 65%. Oil is up 14%, but we do think having come down from $130 to $90, it is in a downtrend. There's another kind of esoteric price out there: container board prices. They are down 29% from their peak and 53% from a year ago.