Antonio Fatás on Hysteresis and the Business Cycle
Macro Musings with David Beckworth
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The Importance of History in Economics
In the 80s, things were OK. There was a long expansion. But there's a very strong recovery from the early 80s crisis. So the notion of history is the notion that the supply side could be affected by cycles but not too visible in the data. Now it wasn't full history. The unemployment rate would not go back to normal. And again, you can see a little bit of an author like Olivier Blanche, struggling with how do I think about the natural rate?
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