Reflecting on FiveThirtyEight and Political Dynamics

Democrats in Congress are in the middle of an extraordinary battle over government funding, but if they fail to heed their base and stand up to Republicans, the electoral impact could be dramatic—though not in a way they're accustomed to. This week on The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of this shutdown fight and explain why Democrats have little reason to worry it will affect next year's general election but should be very concerned about their own primaries.

The Davids also welcome back Daily Kos Elections alum Matt Booker, who's now a pollster at Change Research. Matt catches us up on the state of polls today and tells us why the data the public sees is just the tip of the polling iceberg. We also discuss the shockingly wide-open race for governor in Matt's home state of New Jersey and pour one out for 538, an invaluable site whose loss will be profoundly felt by anyone interested in elections.