State of Foundation Model Competition This Fall

The AI lab rivalry is heating up as rumors swirl about Gemini 3 and Anthropic 4.5. Anthropic faces reputational struggles after coding model stumbles and political headwinds, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 Codex is winning back developers. Meanwhile, Google has strong momentum, Microsoft is charting a distributed strategy, and Amazon is re-emerging through AWS, setting the stage for a volatile fall in foundation model competition.

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