The 40/40/20 risk framework

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week

01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets

03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure

05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?

06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to

08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap

11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances

12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain

13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs

21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape

29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?

33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios

38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework

47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers

53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing

56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees

01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem

01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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