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29min chapter
Breaking Down The Current Business Cycle | Eric Basmajian
Forward Guidance
Understanding the Business Cycle: Dynamics and Indicators
This chapter explores the complex dynamics of the business cycle by categorizing economic data into leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging indicators. It highlights the disconnect between strong GDP figures and underlying economic trends, particularly the contraction in manufacturing and construction sectors due to rising interest rates. Additionally, the chapter examines the implications of these contractions for overall economic activity, including employment and discretionary spending.
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