Navigating Risks in Solar Project Development

In this episode, James sits down with Paces colleagues Kyle Baranko and Tony Wagler to discuss their new white paper, “Pre-Development at Scale: Modeling Risk in Early-Stage Solar Development”. They dive into how AI, probabilistic methods, and standardized development workflows can dramatically reduce soft costs and increase project success rates.

Kyle shares how Monte Carlo simulations were used to model development risks and timelines, while Tony outlines the four key archetypes—environmental, permitting, design, and interconnection—that shape project outcomes. They explain how early de-risking leads to faster decisions, improved IRRs, and better positioning in incentive programs.

Other topics include:

• Why 70–90% of post-site control projects fail
• The power of failing fast and cutting development timelines by up to 50%
• How automation preserves data integrity while saving time
• Real-world feedback from developers and IPPs
• A new interactive tool to explore portfolio-level risks

Whether you’re a solar developer, investor, or curious about energy infrastructure, this conversation offers practical insights into the future of clean energy project planning.

Paces helps developers find and evaluate the sites most suitable for renewable development. Interested in a call with James, CEO @ Paces?