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Rob Wiblin on self-improvement and research ethics
80,000 Hours Podcast
How to Make a Dragonfly Eye Prediction
I try to find every forecast of something that I can find by a credible player whether at you know some forecasts by prediction markets or large institutions. What I do is what I call a dragonfly eye prediction which is it's comes from actually Tuttlock's idea of like dragonfly eyes like the way you should look at making predictions. Then I give them each a weight and I create this like weighted average basically I use that as my kind of final estimate. It's the best way I know of to get reasonably quickly get a forecast of some future world aboutYeah that seems extremely reasonable, he says. The source that I've trusted recently even more than other prediction markets is the good judgment
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