In this episode of the STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane, Chief Economist at AirDNA, sits down with Bram Gallagher, the Director of Economics and Forecasting, to discuss the current state and future outlook of the short-term rental market.
They start by reflecting on their successful prediction from last year that 2024 would see a balance between supply and demand. Discussing the economy's resurgence, Bram details how 2023 was marked by slow GDP growth, high inflation, and recession worries, but 2024 has seen significant improvements in GDP, income growth, and falling inflation. The duo gives credit to the Federal Reserve for its quick rate hikes, which played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy. They discuss the robust state of the economy, with employment growth, stock market highs, and a strong housing market, while also acknowledging potential risks.
They then shift focus to how the current economic environment affects short-term rental investors, predicting higher interest rates for longer and stable, possibly increasing, home values. Supply growth for short-term rentals is expected to moderate, with significant declines in new listings since rate hikes began. For 2025, they foresee a 4.7% supply growth, further reducing in 2026. Performance metrics remain strong, with occupancy expected to recover and ADR increases contributing to revPAR growth. The hosts note market-specific variations, with areas like Maui, Gulf markets, and urban centers like New York seeing dynamic changes.
They also discuss geopolitical instability, inflation risks, and the enduring issue of housing affordability as potential threats to the positive outlook. Concluding on a cautious yet optimistic note, they express confidence in the U.S. short-term rental market's firm footing.
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Episode 110
