Why start a commodity hedge fund

Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Doug on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background

04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities

07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven

09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades

10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity

13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie

15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading

18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals

20:23 - Concentration, themes, and risk limits

22:34 - Risk budgets, drawdowns, and volatility control

26:35 - Margin stress, squeezes, and market dysfunction

30:43 - Defining trades in oil and nickel

35:54 - Linking physical trading to hedge fund insight

43:00 - Discipline, noise, and surviving as a commodity trader

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer