Is geopolitical risk priced in?

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The interview explores the current landscape of the global energy market, focusing on geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector. Young provides a comprehensive analysis of potential geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran and the Middle East. He suggests that the current situation presents significant risks to global oil supply, with potential disruptions ranging from 1 to 20 million barrels per day. The geopolitical uncertainty is largely underappreciated by the market, creating potential opportunities for investors who understand these dynamics.

On the supply side, Josh highlights critical challenges in oil production. He notes that companies like Continental Resources are reducing drilling activities at current price levels, indicating that sustainable oil production may require prices in the $80-$90 range. The industry is experiencing a significant downcycle in both offshore and onshore exploration and development, with exploration success rates declining and existing reserves being depleted. Demand dynamics appear more robust than many analysts expect. Young argues that government stimulus, particularly in an election year, and emerging market growth could support oil consumption. He suggests that a potential economic slowdown might not necessarily reduce oil demand, as increased return-to-office trends could offset potential consumption reductions.

Regarding investment strategies, Young cautions against large integrated oil companies trading at high valuations. Instead, he recommends smaller producers with clean balance sheets, debt reduction potential, and attractive valuation metrics. He emphasizes the importance of companies that can pay down debt, buy back shares, and potentially offer high dividends. Young also discusses his Bison Insights substack, where he shares investment ideas in the energy sector. He believes the current market presents unique opportunities, drawing parallels to previous commodity cycles and highlighting the potential for significant returns in carefully selected energy investments.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:18 – Guest Welcome and Recap
00:03:01 – Silver Prediction Success
00:05:25 – Oil Geopolitical Risks
00:10:45 – Iran Production Impacts
00:16:34 – Risk Pricing Discussion
00:18:56 – China Oil Stockpiling
00:26:53 – Supply Cost Curve
00:30:51 – Underinvestment Trends
00:36:30 – Demand Surge Analysis
00:42:04 – US Consumer Strength
00:51:51 – Investment Pitfalls
00:57:10 – Debt Paydown Strategies
01:01:05 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://bisoninsights.info
X: https://x.com/BisonInsights
Website: https://bisoninterests.com

Joshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences.

Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.