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Rob Wiblin on self-improvement and research ethics

80,000 Hours Podcast

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The Dynamics of Prediction Markets

This chapter explores prediction markets and their ability to forecast world events, drawing parallels with sports betting. The discussion highlights inconsistencies, biases, and challenges faced in political prediction markets while also comparing their mechanics to traditional financial markets. Finally, it emphasizes the importance of reliable forecasting methods and the role of various prediction sources in achieving accurate assessments.

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