Top Five Governors Most Likely to Flip

Chuck Todd breaks down the political fallout as the government shutdown begins disrupting air travel—and both parties claim they’re “winning.” He argues that when politicians are upending people’s lives, no one is really winning. The conversation turns to Israel, where Prime Minister Netanyahu faces deepening domestic backlash and a loss of international allies. With 66% of Israelis wanting the war in Gaza to end and growing calls for Bibi’s ouster, Israel’s reliance on the U.S. has never been greater—or more politically divisive.

Chuck also examines how the Israel issue is surfacing in U.S. campaign politics, from Democratic primaries to GOP power plays. With Republicans clearing primary fields and Democrats facing scandals like Jay Jones’ in Virginia, both parties are wrestling with internal fractures—and the risks of clinging to power at any cost.

Then, Chuck sits down with Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica to unpack the dark underbelly of political fundraising. Bonica reveals how the Democratic consulting firm Mothership Strategies helped shape modern campaign fundraising — and how their tactics, often resembling internet scams, have extracted hundreds of millions from small-dollar donors, many of whom are elderly or unaware they’ve been opted into recurring donations. Together, they explore how much of that money never reaches campaigns at all, instead being funneled into consultant fees and internal operations that border on money laundering.

The conversation broadens into the systemic corruption of campaign finance: both parties’ use of apocalyptic fear-mongering, the rise of Super PACs with minimal voter impact, and how America’s extreme wealth inequality has distorted democratic accountability. Bonica explains why the public now views the very need to raise money as inherently corrupt — and how anti-corruption could be the strongest defense against authoritarian drift. As billions pour into elections with diminishing effect, Chuck and Adam question whether the next era of U.S. politics can ever be disentangled from the cash that drives it.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip parties, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

04:30 Government shutdown begins affecting air travel

06:15 Both sides think they are winning the shutdown

07:30 Congress created the conditions for regular shutdowns

08:30 When you’re disrupting people’s lives, you aren’t “winning”

09:30 Israel’s public support is eroding in the United States

10:30 Under Bibi, Israel has never been more powerful and alone

11:30 Israel alienated allies, incredibly reliant on the United States

13:15 Partisan split between R’s and D’s over support for Israel

14:15 Growing skepticism for Israel’s actions in Gaza

16:00 66% of Israelis want to end the war in Gaza

17:30 Majority of Israelis want Netayahu gone after war is over

19:00 Most Israelis goal is the getting hostages home, not eliminating Hamas

20:15 Bibi is clinging to power to avoid accountability

21:15 New ad in New Hampshire targeting Andy Beshear over support for Israel

22:45 Tough to know how salient Israel issue will be in a Democratic primary

24:45 Republicans are clearing primary fields across the country

25:30 If Ken Paxton is nominee in Texas, the senate could flip

27:30 Susan Collins is the only Republican that can win in Maine

29:15 Dem voters tired of establishment that isn’t winning

30:30 MAGA gave Republicans most power they’ve had in decades

31:30 If Jay Jones allegations in VA surfaced a month ago, he’d be replaced

33:00 If elected, Jay Jones should resign and let assembly choose replacement

36:00 Democrats playing with political fire with Jay Jones

38:30 Adam Bonica joins the Chuck ToddCast 

41:30 Fundraising tactics are beyond bizarre 

44:00 Mothership strategies behind much of the Dem advertising 

46:30 Democratic candidates were enamored by Mothership's strategy 

48:45 Many donors had been suffering from cognitive decline 

50:00 PAC's were basically money laundering 

52:05 Most fundraising dollars were spent internally on consultants 

53:30 Both parties use apocalyptic language when fundraising 

55:30 Campaign fundraising using the same tactics as scammers 

57:00 Political fundraisers prey on older people 

59:00 Donors have to actively uncheck recurring donations 

59:45 ActBlue adopted new rules after Adam's reporting 

1:02:30 Mothership has raised hundreds of millions of dollars 

1:06:30 Mothership claims their fight is a "necessary evil" 

1:09:30 The public is very concerned about corruption 

1:10:15 Anti-corruption is the #1 anti-authoritarian strategy 

1:11:45 Public sees the need to raise money as a form of corruption 

1:13:15 There is so much corruptibility on the fundraising side of politics 

1:14:00 Money spent by Super PACs has almost no effect on public opinion 

1:15:15 Trump was outspent and still won 

1:16:00 Democrats have fundraising advantage they are squandering 

1:16:45 Most Republican donor money came from $1M+ earners 

1:17:30 Democrats dominating donations from young professionals 

1:20:30 Democrats would gain credibility advantage disavowing dark money 

1:23:00 American wealth inequality is reaching extreme territory 

1:24:45 Billionaires aren't aligned with root Democratic party politics 

1:27:45 Will we see $5B presidential elections in 2028? 

1:29:15 There is more money per swing voter than ever 

1:31:00 $500m will be spent on CA redistricting 

1:33:30 Mainstream journalism rarely audits where money goes

1:37:30 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Adam Bonica 

1:39:15 Toddcast Top 5 - Governor's seats most likely to flip parties 

1:39:45 #1 Virginia 

1:42:15 #2 Kansas 

1:44:00 #3 Wisconsin, #4 Michigan 

1:46:15 #5 Iowa 

1:50:15 Ask Chuck 

1:50:30 Will there ever be amendments to prevent corruption in government? 

1:53:15 Does Trump think the public will believe misinformation about the economy? 

1:58:15 Should Democrats offer a "Project 2029" to offer a clear vision for change? 

2:00:45 How would you handle bad faith Republican arguments over shutdown?

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