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5min chapter
Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
How to Avoid a Mad World
LZ Granderson: I don't think the world's mad at all. This is exactly what you'd expect from chimpanzees wearing suits and ties, building civilization. LZ: An interesting topic is that of betting markets and prediction markets where people try to bet on what world events are going to happen. He says they're not quite perfect, there are some distortions, but they perform reasonably well. Lz: It seems like potentially this could be extremely useful because if these predictions markets are actually well calibrated, then it really does happen 70% of time.
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