Exploring the Link Between Volatility and Credit Spreads

Just how potent is the influence of interest rates on the economy and financial assets? If this question piques your interest, then you're in for a treat as financial market and macro forecasting consultant, David Rosenberg, ventures into this intricate topic in an illuminating conversation. Drawing on his rich career experience and his keen focus on the buy side, David reveals the profound impact of interest rates on long-duration assets. He also offers keen insights into the bond market and the Federal Reserve's reaction function, particularly in light of the central bank's recent hawkish guidance that sparked a reset in the bond market.

But that's not all. We also tackle the surprising moves of the Federal Reserve in the market, delving into the reasons behind the lag in treasury movement relative to credit spreads. We explore the potential ramifications of an increased cost of capital on the corporate sector and contemplate the possibility of a credit event occurring at the end of the year due to the rollover of debt. How can the bond market anticipate this? Listen in as David illustrates the potential pathways. 

Then, we broaden our gaze to the global economic landscape, examining the impact of real estate on regional banks and the potential of Japan as a source of real credit stress. We also uncover the multifaceted influences of China's structural slowdown and debt detonation, the strength of the US dollar, and the precarious state of Germany's principal trading partners, Russia and China. This is not just another discussion on global economics - it's a deep dive into the intricate web of factors at play in our interconnected world. So, join us for this enlightening conversation and arm yourself with a better understanding of the complex world of global economics.

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