5min chapter

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours cover image

Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours

CHAPTER

Forecasting Tournaments Are a Difficult Cell A

Forecasting tournaments are a difficult cell because they challenge stale status hirarchies. I think it's quite possible that the intelligence community prediction market and forecasting tournaments could even disappear. We'll become more aware of our limitations when we're fooling ourselves, i believe in so far as there's an arc of history to be followed. And the long term, we'll all be dead. But it may be beyond my, my life expectancy.

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