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The Belarusian Armed Forces Aren't Ready to Operate on Their Own
The Belarusian military forces in my mind don't add up to a whole lot in terms of offensive combat potential. A return to Kiev doesn't make much sense to do what? Get stuck again and get annihilated down fairly narrow ground lines of communication, trying to make their way through marshes in the north. The Ukraine of vulnerability may be something like the main nuclear power plant further up north that's not too far from the border.