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Recession Not Required (EP.317)

Animal Spirits Podcast

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The Fed's Prediction of a Recession

Goldman Sachs chief economist said, we are cutting our probability that a US recession will start in the next 12 months, to 20% from 25%. Yian Hatsias: "The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession" The funny thing to me- so they showed Goldman Sachs, their probability of recession versus consensus. So consensus got to 60 some percent, which is kind of funny, because it happened in September 2022 - right near the bottom of the stock market. It feels to me like there's not many things that you could hang your hat on.

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