Toby Mosquitz: Umpires are susceptible to the Gambler's fallacy, but they're also just not that good. He says a judge who had granted asylum to two asylum seekers in a row would be more likely to reject the next one. And he says on pitches that are just outside the strike zone, umpires only get those right about what percent?Mosquitz: I'm going to give them like 90 to 95% because they're experts. But you don't even need an umpire hardly.
What do gamblers and referees have in common? When do machines make better decisions than people? And has Stephen been replaced by a computer?