Evidence, cluelessness and the long term | Hilary Greaves
EA Talks
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The Limits of Evidence
In a simple cost effectiveness analysis, one only measures the immediate intended effect of one's intervention. There are two kinds of effects of our interventions that aren't counted if we just do the kind of thing that i described on the previous slide. These are what i'll call knock on effects, or perhaps sometimes called flow through effects, on the one hand and then there are side effects. I want to make three observations about those unmeasured effects - they can only barely be dimly and we can only barely see them at all. And so here we go, part two, the limits of evidence. It was when my student turned round to me said, basically, givewell exists. Nothing
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