Marcus du Sautoy Meets Steven Pinker - Why Rationality Matters
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How Many Women Will Have Breast Cancer?
In the medical diagnosis problem, it chance that you have the disease with the posittest result is nine %. A sample of doctors say it's 90%. And conamantisky's explanation is, were victims of a fallacy they call bas rate neglect. Namely, what we don't take into account. The reason our intuitions go so awry is that the very first thing that you say when you introduce the problem,. namely, in this case, women have breast cancer in the population, the bass rate gives you the prior to test results.
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