Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty Ahead of December

On today's podcast:
1) President Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts designed to address high food prices and a series of new trade deals — including framework agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador — as he seeks to address voter concerns over the cost of goods. The push comes after electoral victories for Democrats last week across a number of key state and local races where candidates stressed affordability concerns. Trade deals with Latin American countries unveiled Thursday will see the US reduce tariffs and barriers on common grocery items like beef, bananas, and coffee beans in a push to lower grocery bills that have for years frustrated Americans. Separately, Trump and other senior administration officials have previewed broader tariff exemptions that could cut levies on popular food products across the board. In interviews earlier this week on Fox News, Trump pledged to “lower some tariffs” on coffee while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested fruit imports would receive a break.
2) Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced $10,000 bonus checks for Transportation Security Administration officers who worked without pay during the six-week government shutdown, calling the payments a reward for “exemplary service” under strain. Speaking at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport on Thursday, Noem said the move would help employees who took extra shifts to keep security lines moving as paychecks stopped. The shutdown, the longest in US history, shuttered large parts of the federal government for 43 days and left more than 800,000 workers without pay. Aviation was among the hardest-hit sectors: the Federal Aviation Administration cut flight capacity by 10% at major airports as air-traffic controller shortages mounted, and more than 9,000 flights were canceled nationwide. While Congress passed a funding measure late Wednesday, officials said it could take days to restore normal operations and clear payroll backlogs.
3) Traders slashed the odds of a December US rate cut to below 50% after a string of Fed officials voiced skepticism about the need for a third straight move, citing the economy’s resilience and lingering uncertainty over inflation after the US shutdown. The question remains how the majority of policymakers are leaning, with several still uneasy about signs of labor-market weakness. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he didn’t support the US central bank’s last interest-rate cut, though he’s still undecided on the best course of action for its December policy meeting. Meantime, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly said it’s premature to decide whether policymakers should lower interest rates next month.

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