How to Use a Crystal Ball to Predict Future Returns

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The crystal ball has been used since ancient times. It's used for scrying, healing and meditation. You can actually feel the energy from your ball by just putting your hands in and out. The other thing is it matches up performance to economic environments. But if you use historical data in particular the real returns which already subtract off the inflation for that period then you are going to have much more realistic estimates to use.

In this episode we answer questions from Shplendid Spencer, Russel and MyContactInfo. We discuss the pros and cons of online calculators and how they are commonly inadequate and/or misused, why being conservative beyond realistic possibilities is probably not a good idea overall, and an article by Aswath Damodaran about Nvidia, the chip industry and the implications of AI for DIY investing. CORRECTION: I said the Heat Map calculator was at Portfolio Visualizer -- it's actually at Portfolio Charts at the link below.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Spencer's Tool Link: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data (engaging-data.com)

Similar Portfolio Visualizer Analysis Tool: Asset Liability Modeling (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Tyler on Security Analysis Podcast: Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)

Portfolio Charts Heat Map Tool: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts

Article on The Top Five Regrets of the Dying: The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - Wikipedia

List of Cognitive Biases: The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals

Aswath Damodaran Article: Musings on Markets: AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)