Analysis of Rate Cuts, Economic Data, and Market Sentiments

Two Federal Reserve speakers signalled that interest rate cuts are coming (the tone is consistent with a September rate cut). The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes strongly suggests that profit-led inflation is in full retreat (retailers are discounting to buy back customer loyalty, and customer price sensitivity is high). Growth and employment also appear to be moderating. The ECB meets today, giving Lagarde an opportunity to speak—no rate cut is expected now, but the quarter-point-a-quarter rhythm is looked for.