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Confidence vs. Overconfidence | Idea Generation and Getting to ”No” Quickly

This Week in Intelligent Investing

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How Much Are You Really Sticking Your Neck Out?

The most troublesome implications from overconfidence come from people that are not aware of it, right? I think. the single best way i've found to combat over confidence is by focusing on base rates. In those base rates, everything has a probability associated with it. If you start with this concept that i could be wrong, and there's a number associated with how likely i am to be wrong, that will sober you up in a big hurry.

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