4min chapter

This Week in Intelligent Investing cover image

Confidence vs. Overconfidence | Idea Generation and Getting to ”No” Quickly

This Week in Intelligent Investing

CHAPTER

How Much Are You Really Sticking Your Neck Out?

The most troublesome implications from overconfidence come from people that are not aware of it, right? I think. the single best way i've found to combat over confidence is by focusing on base rates. In those base rates, everything has a probability associated with it. If you start with this concept that i could be wrong, and there's a number associated with how likely i am to be wrong, that will sober you up in a big hurry.

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