GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm
Top Traders Unplugged
Intro
Exploring the risks of a recession and the changing dynamics of the economic cycle, with experts offering valuable insights on adapting to the evolving global macroeconomic landscape.
Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 - Putting the data together
18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 - The state of physical policy
45:32 - The growth picture from a long term perspective
50:32 - The positive sides of inflation
53:17 - Book recommendations and advice for other investors
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