Devin Elliot is a former pro snowboarder turned software engineer who has logged thousands of hours building AI systems. His P(Doom) is a flat ⚫. He argues that worrying about an AI takeover is as irrational as fearing your car will sprout wings and fly away.
We spar over the hard limits of current models: Devin insists LLMs are hitting a wall, relying entirely on external software “wrappers” to feign intelligence. I push back, arguing that raw models are already demonstrating native reasoning and algorithmic capabilities.
Devin also argues for decentralization by claiming that nuclear proliferation is safer than centralized control.
We end on a massive timeline split: I see superintelligence in a decade, while he believes we’re a thousand years away from being able to “grow” computers that are truly intelligence.
Timestamps
00:00:00 Episode Preview
00:01:03 Intro: Snowboarder to Coder
00:03:30 "I Do Not Have a P(Doom)"
00:06:47 Nuclear Proliferation & Centralized Control
00:10:11 The "Spotify Quality" House Analogy
00:17:15 Ideal Geopolitics: Decentralized Power
00:25:22 Why AI Can't "Fly Away"
00:28:20 The Long Addition Test: Native or Tool?
00:38:26 Is Non-Determinism a Feature or a Bug?
00:52:01 The Impossibility of Mind Uploading
00:57:46 "Growing" Computers from Cells
01:02:52 Timelines: 10 Years vs. 1,000 Years
01:11:40 "Plastic Bag Ghosts" & Builder Intuition
01:13:17 Summary of the Debate
01:15:30 Closing Thoughts
Links
Devin’s Twitter — https://x.com/devinjelliot
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