The US Equity Market: Bullish or Not?

The market is fully the short term interest rate market is fully anticipating a pivot. If you are expecting a recession that will happen fairly quickly, possibly a severe one and possibly led by a banking crisis of some sort in that world equities does do poorly. And then alternatively, if you have a period of strong nominal growth driven by both okay real growth sort of slogging along at trend real growth and higher than normal inflation, that's actually pretty good for earnings.