Probability
In Our Time: Science
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The Probability of Pulling Out Unusual Numbers
He was proving that if you sample with replacements, as they say, then the probability of getting a black pebble or a white pebble is the same at every step. He introduced the pebbles in a jar so that he could get away from the fifty fifty and tailor your pebbles to give any bias you like. The probability of pulling out these rather unusual numbers, which don't seem to reflect the proportions, are very, very small. So this is actually pretty unlikely. But we know, because I know from your notes, that he could pull out a hundred white pebbles. Yes, he could pulled out your seventeen heads. It's about one in
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