The Uncertainty of Earthquake Prediction in Japan

Predicting Disasters: Earthquakes, Scientists, and Uncertainty in Modern Japan (University of Pennsylvania Press, 2024) takes seriously attempts to reduce uncertainty around the timing, magnitude, and location of earthquakes in postwar Japan. Covering the period between early warnings about earthquakes in 1905 right up until the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, Kerry Smith explores the different ways scientists in Japan tried to predict earthquakes, how they sought to communicate their efforts to the public, and how understandings of disasters changed in turn. Smith thus carefully embeds each earthquake within its historical context, looking at how people reacted to individual earthquakes and how each earthquake fueled further efforts to understand seismology and plan for disasters.

Predicting Disasters is meticulous, thoughtful, and provides new, historically grounded understandings of how earthquakes are approached in Japan today and why the promise of prediction has never quite left Japan. Predicting Disasters is sure to appeal to those interested in modern Japanese history, the histories of science and disasters, and anyone who has ever grappled with the idea of scientific uncertainty.

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