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Kerry Smith, "Predicting Disasters: Earthquakes, Scientists, and Uncertainty in Modern Japan" (U Pennsylvania Press, 2024)

New Books in Science, Technology, and Society

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The Uncertainty of Earthquake Prediction in Japan

This chapter explores the complexities of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, particularly following the catastrophic Kobe earthquake and the Tokai earthquake debates. It highlights the evolving public perception of seismic prediction amid ongoing scientific uncertainties and funding challenges, illustrating the tension between ambitious predictive goals and the reality of inherent unpredictability. The discussion also emphasizes Japan's unique long-term commitment to earthquake prediction, showcasing the interactions between scientists globally while addressing the urgent need for public safety and preparedness.

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