Forecast Surprises, Successes and Slip-Ups
Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
00:00
The Differences Between the Leading Indicators and the Conference Board
The leading indicator is heavily dependent on the shape of the yield curve. And that's been inverted, which historically has been a very good prescient predictor of recession. The other thing though, maybe the reason why the leading indicators are a little off this time compared to previous- they're very heavy on interest rate sensitive sector activity. Housing and manufacturing activity have held up better than you know for lots of different reasons.
Transcript
Play full episode
