Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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Do You Think Russia Will Launch Nuclear Weapons?
I think that should have been entirely expected, whether that's looking at how the us. invaded afghanistan and arack when you have a generalmmobilization in a country where any male aged 15 to 65 will fight. And so if it's just another massacre that will then lead to that aid, i think we should actually be et higher than one % now, because the likelihood of that happening is relatively high. Yes. That nuclear powers use the ambiguous threat of nuclear response to try to deter other things. Maybe they shouldn't do that, but there are strong reasons why they feel they have to. But each side is kind of using the threat that that might happen as leverage.
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