Is Your Model Fragile?

In your model you're like well what just happened it looks like I should have no drownings and yet here we are yeah absolutelyYeah so you do have extra fragility there but then causal relationships are also not necessarily as strongly related as you might think in the case of temperature. High temperatures may not cause people to go to the beach if you have some kind of event like a pandemic, for example. It really helps people have more confidence in the model if they can see that it makes sense in some way if it fits with their sort of preconceptions about what's causing what.