Macro Liquidity, Venture Capital, and the AI Bubble

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is Founder & Chief Investment Officer, of The Technical Traders. In this in-depth discussion, Vermeulen provides insights into the current state of financial markets, with a particular focus on precious metals, commodities, and potential economic shifts. Vermeulen argues that gold is currently signaling potential economic instability, suggesting we are approaching a significant financial reset. He believes the precious metals market is in a temporary pullback phase, with potential for another substantial rally.

Drawing parallels to the 2007-2008 market cycle, he anticipates gold could potentially reach $5,100, representing approximately a 30% move from current levels. His investment strategy, which he calls “asset revesting,” focuses on moving capital into assets showing the strongest upward trends with the least risk. Vermeulen emphasizes following price action rather than getting caught up in fundamental narratives, noting that markets have their own psychology and momentum.

Regarding other commodities, Vermeulen offers nuanced perspectives. He sees copper in an uptrend but isn’t particularly bullish, while he’s bearish on oil, predicting it could drop to around $45-$52 per barrel. Interestingly, he sees potential in the US dollar, believing it’s positioned for a significant rally that could coincide with a stock market correction. His analysis suggests we’re in a late-stage economic cycle characterized by innovation (currently represented by AI stocks) and potential market fragility. He warns investors to be cautious, highlighting that a handful of tech stocks are artificially propping up market indices while many underlying stocks are struggling. Vermeulen recommends investors follow price trends, manage risk carefully, and be prepared to move capital quickly between asset classes.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:39 – Gold’s Current Price Action
00:02:10 – Parabolic Moves and Corrections
00:05:08 – Bullish Precious Metals Outlook
00:07:27 – Fundamentals vs Technicals
00:08:14 – 2007 Market Comparison
00:14:25 – Upcoming Rally Seasonality
00:17:30 – Investor Sentiment and Targets
00:20:50 – Asset Revesting Framework
00:23:12 – Risk Management Strategies
00:26:11 – Economic Cycle AI Bubble
00:29:39 – Financial Reset Predictions
00:33:01 – Miners and Juniors Potential
00:37:25 – Copper Oil US Dollar
00:44:32 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/
X: https://x.com/TheTechTraders

Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.

A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.