Is There a 20% Probability of a Global Crisis?

Christopher Miller: Most likely outcome is that we have a period of tension, but we avoid a major military standoff. But if you ask me to put a probability on it, I'd give you a 20% probability over five years. That's a much higher probability than I put on it five years ago. We ought to be willing to spend a lot in terms of money and diplomatic attention to avert this type of crisis," he says.