In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?
They break down:
- Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”
- Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lack
- The debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human labor
- What an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robots
- How AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of work
Along the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us.
Timecodes:
0:00 Intro
0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence
2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared
7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment
15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI
17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy
31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income
31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work
41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future
45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons
54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path
57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race
1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance
1:09:31 Final Thoughts
Resources:
Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Find Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel
Subscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/
Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion
Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Stay Updated:
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Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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