The Fed's Tightening Cycle

(This video originally aired on April 18, 2023. We are replaying it, along with a few other of our most significant interviews of the past year, while Wealthion host Adam Taggart is dealing with a death in the family). I've said several times recently on this program, perhaps the most important and yet least appreciated trend that will drive our economic destiny in 2023 will be the lag effect.

This refers to the delayed shockwaves the economy experiences when central banks make changes to monetary policy.

We experienced one of the sharpest-ever reversals in policy a year ago, but most of the impacts from that have yet to be fully expressed, as they take many months to ripple through the economy before we can see them.

Which is why we're so fortunate to speak with today's guest, Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the H.O.P.E. framework - Housing, Orders, Profits & Employment -- which provides a way for us to track the progression of those shockwaves, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to come next.

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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?

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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

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