So right

now the market is pricing for the fed to hike basically 75 basis points, then 50 in december. So 75 november, 50 in december, and a little bit more through march. And then the market is basely pricing for them to start cutting rates pretty quickly in

the spring. Ira the fed a, our economist team believe that we're going to stay flat at that higher plateau for much longer than the market is pricing. Obviously, the market canchainse things. I mean, if you talk to anyone, if they asked you if we thought were gingto et three or four % by the fall a, no one would have said that butt basically. Or bloomrg intelligence team thinks that we're going to get above that four % level and sit there for a good chunk of 20 20 threeand that'll impact everything. Well. That theoretically bodes well for cash. If the fed sits at terminal for a while, and rates jus sort of stay at this very, relatively, very high plateau, that would mean your tea bills continue to pay out pretty lofty yields, yes. Which means maybe this wasn't the place to be a year ago

as rates went up, but if this is where rates stay, then being there now could be good for a while, especially if inflation does, if specially the fed does, get inflation under control, that's, i would agree. Here's a thing with the inflation number, which is confusing. And ivor worked this

out with us a little bit. The month over month has been pretty nice. For the past couple of months. It hasn't like, shown a huge move. But again, year over year, still like eight %.

Rate, eight, nine %. Well, the year over year was, i think the first jump was wat six, seven months ago. Was that when the first print hit. Don't we have to go 12 months to go back to where the high water mark is now, where then it's under two %? So it would seem to me nothing will get resolved until a whole year passes from that shock print. So you're asking me to do some math. Rigt here. Wer tongue up. Youln talk abot plotsi know you like the dot meot. Youl t, your rags. Ant, she messed with the dot plot. The dot plot crowd, they were not happy. No. But some people were on your side. Some people draw us a

joke. I said that the dot plot is a meaningless image. It's so silly. And

some one said, you're a financial journalist.

How could this mean nothing to

you? Ok? But the best comment that some one gave to me was a line, is a dot that went for a walk, spoken like an artistye, i do

think you ow one thing i will say to your point, and i think graham capital was the one who said yes, because it's meaningless, because these people don't realyknowhatey're talking about. They're always wrong. Ah. And they have mised a lot. Nobody called this, as james just pointed out. The only thing that kind of annoys me

is the cellside research people who come out like

its like goldman now has a s and p outlook, and they just revise it down ecause they the market had a rough week. I'm like, well, you can't do that. You pick it at the beginning of the year and stick to it. Like, i don't understand that prediction based on what just happened. I get i get why they do it, but it just seems like, why am i going to listen at all? Then i'll just look at past performance and extrapolate that forward and go, that's what the

sellside thinks. Well, defet to

their credit, i feel like they try to stress that these are not forecast necessarily, or this, this is not like upsetting stone policy. Other're going to react the whay it happens. Yes, they do try to get the message across, but everyone just takes it lie their data dependent exactwell, wile ego, i,

when i was luck enough to guest hos the clothes e, we had the white house person, one the economic adviser. I never get to ask these non e t f questions, but i

did. And i was sort

of like talking about the election. Because inflation is by far the

number one issue with voters. It took cobet's place. 30 % of voters say it'sthe nmber one issue. Coben's now one %. Completely flop and flip flopped. And so i think the fed sont has political pressure as well, because this is the biggest issue for the election. So i do wonder, if we have this election, the mid terms, if there might be a little bit of the foot off the gas, just because there's the political pressure, might dow down a little bit ause there's no election coming up? I don't think it's political pressure. I think it's part of the mandate, right? They have a mandate, and this is part of the mandate. But it's hard to untangle politics from he mandate, in my opinion. But i suppose you're right. I just, i don't know. I just can't see the fete

is completely a political i just can't know.