Big needs in longtermism and how to help with them | Holden Karnofsky | EA Global: SF 22
EA Talks
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We Live in a Wild and Wacky Time
The right kind of AI looks pretty likely to be developed this century. We have other techniques for forecasting transformative AI including surveying experts on it and projecting out when we expect to see an AI model that is in some sense as big or as powerful as a human brain how much that would cost when that's expected to be affordable. The final point that the series talks about is that I think one of the best counter arguments to everything I'm saying is that maybe step by step it's fine but the whole picture is just very wild.
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