In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves
(03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump
(09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing
(16:05) Ledger Ad
(16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio
(20:19) Post-GFC Financial System
(23:46) Repo Market Tensions
(35:01) Ledger Ad
(35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing
(39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates
(44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite
(50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy
(01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity
(01:07:59) Final Thoughts
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
