Dollar Asia - A Higher Probability Case Early 2023

The first one obviously will be the Fed policy outlook, which matters for the broad dollar direction and hence dollar Asia. Right now our market has priced in a terminal rate near 5% and even a quick reversal to rate cut before the end of 2023. So anything less hawkish than that would render for the sell of dollar Asia. The second driver is actually whether the action from the Fed and other central banks would push the US or even the world into a recession. If we don't have a soft landing then the current risk on environment could be hard to sustain at least for early 2023. That's why I were saying and we believe dollar consolidation could be a higher likelihood case early 20