We won't just be able to run more inferences, but we'll be able to train larger models. If you look at GPT-3, which is already a large model at 170 billion parameters, there's a question of how big models will get in the future and what data will be needed to train those models. There's going to need to be a lot of language data generated to feed models once we get training capacity this large.
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This week’s Big Ideas Monday Mini Episode focuses on Artificial Intelligence.
Generative AI made waves this year, from DALL-E-2 to ChatGPT. These tools are improving the productivity of knowledge workers—~2x in the case of AI coding assistants.
AI training cost declines continued at an annual rate of 70%, the cost to train a large language model to GPT-3 level performance collapsing from $4.6 million in 2020 to $450,000 in 2022. We expect cost declines to continue at a 70% rate through 2030.
AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030. At 100% adoption, AI could increase global labor productivity ~$200 trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in total knowledge worker salaries.
Watch the video version here.
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.